China's oil demand will reach a peak of 690 million tons in 2030. After 2030, the proportion of oil demand in the world will gradually drop to about 12%.

　　 On August 16, the China Petroleum Institute of Economics and Technology released the 2017 edition of the "World and China's Energy Outlook in 2050" report (hereinafter referred to as the report). This is the second year that PetroChina has released an energy outlook report. This year's report mainly predicts energy supply and demand in 2030 and 2050.

　　“China's crude oil production remained at 200 million tons before 2030, and then gradually declined. "Demand for fossil energy will reach its peak in 2030, and natural gas will continue to grow in 2050. In 2050, China's natural gas demand will account for about 15% of the world's total. "Liu Chang, an energy industry analyst at the PetroChina Institute of Economics and Technology, said that from the perspective of the increase in natural gas demand, China's increase in natural gas demand will reach 38% from 2020 to 2030, and will gradually fall to less than 10% in the future.

　　“Compared with last year’s outlook, the biggest change in the 2017 Energy Outlook Report is the increase in primary energy demand. ” Jiang Xuefeng, vice president of the PetroChina Research Institute of Economics and Technology, said at the press conference that with the improvement of residents' quality of life and the facilitation of transportation facilities, the energy demand of the transportation sector will continue to increase before 2050.

　　 Last year, PetroChina predicted that China’s transportation energy consumption will peak in 2030, at about 380 million tons, accounting for about 55% of the total oil demand that year. This year's report shows that as of 2030, domestic transportation and chemical raw materials accounted for 97% of the increase in oil demand, of which transportation oil accounted for about 73% of the increase in demand.

　　 The increase in transportation fuel is mainly due to the increase in demand for high energy consumption such as car ownership and civil aviation fuel. "In 2050, China's car ownership will be close to 500 million, an increase of 1.8 times compared with 2015. "Wang Lining, an energy analyst at the PetroChina Institute of Economics and Technology, said that by then, China's car ownership per 1,000 people will reach 350, of which the number of new energy cars will reach 30%.

　　From the perspective of oil varieties, diesel demand will steadily decline, and automotive demand will reach its peak around 2025, but aviation kerosene demand will continue to grow in 2050.

　　“Transportation oil will account for 78% and 65% of the transportation sector’s energy demand in 2030 and 2050, respectively. "Wang Lining said that although new energy vehicles, high-speed rail and other modes of transportation and shared travel have a significant impact on transportation fuel, fuel vehicles still account for a relatively high proportion in the outlook period, and the development of air transportation has alleviated this trend.

　　“The reduction in oil demand brought about by the sharing economy this year is equivalent to 1.4 million tons, accounting for less than 1% of domestic oil demand. It is expected that the medium to long-term (before 2050) will not have much impact on oil demand "Said Chen Rui, the chief engineer of the Petroleum Market Research Institute of China Petroleum Institute of Economics and Technology.